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Thread: A Geographical Alliance Analysis

  1. #1

    Default A Geographical Alliance Analysis

    Dear all,

    This analysis is a geographic analysis (i.e. focuses mainly on the geographic positioning of the alliances) rather than a statistical analysis.

    The reasons for that are multiple but the two best reasons are:

    1. 2nd village placements indicate the strategic direction of an alliance (if any)
    2. Geographic settlements are not influenced by that week’s disposition of a handful of players. Statistics can be short-term noise in the long path of a normal Travian server and settling patterns provide an inkling of long-term strategic positioning that stats can not capture

    Having said that I won’t ignore stats (completely…) . I will just not focus on them

    The analysis is a bit idiosyncratic and I don’t split it in quadrants partly because as you will probably see almost all alliances have dismissed the idea of quadrants in practice (even though in forums nearly everybody still focuses on them ). In addition, I will do a top 20 analysis. Where alliances are bunched together via CP/NAP I will treat them as one

    I also don’t make any particular claims to objectivity though I am trying to be relatively unbiased (though is hard in a server dominated by Smurfs, and grumpy dwarves )

    Anyhow, so here we go:

    1st: P.R/SL meta/S&D meta/WWW

    That constitutes a total of 6 of the top 20 alliances. Mercifully SMURFs dropped the CPs/NAPs and Elite collapsed otherwise it would have been about 10/20 alliances lol

    The first thing a cursory look tells you is that despite a massive network of alliances there is no scope. They are spread throughout the central territories. Most of their players clearly settled near their spawns. And each alliance has followed a rather different strategy as you can see from the map:

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    PR is almost exclusively in Northern Italy and the NW Balkans. S&DII and WWW have settled in the Italian islands and Northern Africa dominating those areas at least in numbers; they clearly have a joint plan.

    S.L/S .L/S.L.F are completely random. Please note how both S.L and S .L are spread across the whole Italian boot with a generous portion in the Balkans. That is the main reason they have been branded as noobs…

    If I were to guess SL meta won’t be around for much longer and something else will take its place. PR may or may not survive depending whom they share space with. The fact that their raiding/offense is low combined with the fact that their growth is high does not bode well… Sounds like lots of nice farms with little troops

    S&D I was actually quite surprised with. They do seem dominant in their chosen areas with the only exception of S&DIII which is far and rather unsupported by S&DII & WWW. If TAA does not demolish this meta they could emerge as a strong contestant for the VP race.

    2nd: S&MRH / A&M / DC

    I have bunched all the non-affiliated NW alliances together in this next section. First of all because it offers a comparative measure of strategic thinking amongst the various NW antagonists and second because Travian allows only a limited number of screenshots per message x). The first thing to note is that these three alliances are very different from the meta above ; dare I say more serious alliances...?

    I will start with S&MRH (this is a serious analysis am afraid where little blue people are not invited!). Now this alliance may be more than meets the eye. When they had the CP they looked rather weak but now with their CP gone and their stats very healthy they do look decent. They survived a sneaky attempt to destroy the alliance from the outside and players showed solidarity to the leadership team so who knows…? They may survive at least till October and I may win my bet....!

    If you look at the map you will note that they are making a bid for at least 5-6 remote arties. There is a small cluster of players in Ireland and West England, a small cluster in Germany and France and a bizarre two players team towards Russia!!! Some thought has been put in this arrangement and I was genuinely surprised with the planning. I think if they survive the NW mess they will be a major VP contestant.
    Respect.

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    A&M in contrast has settled mainly in the centre with only one exception around London. Clearly a lot of Londoners among the A&M.That cluster will probably come in direct conflict with the S&MRH cluster to their West. Curious who will dominate the British Isles to be honest... A&M most likely is not interested in the VP race and is defiantly and definitely a Central Alliance.

    Last but not least DC.Has many clearly experienced players. Even though they recently lost a set of players in the SE who joined No3 they still have quality...! The bulk of the alliance is near the alps and Northern Italy. The geographic positioning seems however fairly random and in contrast to S&MRH this alliance is clearly NOT a pre-formed. However it has good players, it has potential, can it overcome the geographic dispersion and find its ways…?

    3rd: .II./-II-

    Both pre-formed, both Eastern alliances. With some luck they should be able to dominate the East despite their obviously noobish leadership .

    .II.has as main antagonists components of the DC alliance and the S&DIII wing while –II- faces P.R.

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    .II. has bid for some faraway artifacts and most likely will get them. The travelling though has been crazy (2-3 days one way...)

    –II- is opting to settle closer to the overall mess in Italy, taking some nice croppers and positions in Balkans and Central Europe and in the process securing a number of arties. This coalition is an obvious VP contestant I hope you are curious to see how they will fight for the Eastern soul, honor and the VP race

    4th: The rest Part I
    Though unfair to cluster disparate alliances together I will unapologetically do it as I have space only for 5 screenshots:

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    The best joke is the NE alliance. Their preferred locations for second villages? In the hotly contested UK!! Between two of the top alliances of the server!!! I think I can stop my analysis there….

    BOTE seems at least focused with some peripheral settlings in France and Germany but frankly I cannot see anything special in rankings or strategy… They will be a punch bag for days to come….

    SOL is also rather concentrated in the NE. They seem also to be settling near their spawns and due to their geographic concentration they may actually do well. Recently they started appearing in the raidings so clearly they do have ability and skills. Time will tell whether they will survive amongst the P.R and -II-…

    TBH was a surprise. Clearly a latecomer, recruiting amongst late arrivals and settling with some though in Greece mainly and some in North Africa. Promising but as they arrive late in Greece they will probably be annihilated by the main alliance over there while in Africa they will meet us ; we will not be gentle.

    5: The rest Part II

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    Now ~FOX~has been around for a while and they have good people among them. However the setup is not very promising…. First they settled everywhere in Balkans and Northern Italy and second they decided to move en masse to UK, thus making UK (as expected) an alliance hotspot . However facing SMRH and A&M in the old isles I doubt will be a very pleasant experience for the foxes….

    KM and Cobra are both latecomers judging from the patterns and have not settled as many 2nd villages to say something truly meaningful. Having come late to the game they should reflect on their aims. One more alliance in UK would not be the way to go x)

    DOT are a very interesting animal. Pre-formed but with no clear aims; somehow they managed to misplace some of their players in the lower part of Italy whilst the majority have settled up in France and the mountains north of Italy… Clearly they should not be underestimated; though small their stats say that they should be handled with care . They could be the decider with regards to NW domination.


    Summary

    In conclusion, we have an interesting situation in S3. Five clear pre-formed alliances (DOT, SMURFs, .II./-II-, and possibly A&M or TAA), and the rest are either partially preformed (as in 4-5 players decided to join and the rest were recruited in-server) or completely made up (S.L seems to fit that last category just fine )

    In addition, there are three alliance groups that are already gearing for the VP game: 1. -II-/.II. 2. S&HRM 3. S&DII/WWW while at least two more may have such aims in mind (DC and the SL meta) but are still far from realizing that potential.

    Personally I think that this server with its realistic map is the first ever where geographic positioning is as important. I enjoy not knowing what exactly will happen next and how the various alliances and their plans will pan out .
    Last edited by Crimson Wolf; 11 Aug 2014 at 10:34 PM. Reason: To take into account today's changes in DC alliance

  2. #2

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    nice read m8, looks like it took some effort, but was worth it,

    cheers

  3. #3

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    Great stuff!

  4. #4

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    Great post, can't wait to see the opposite of everything you've put happen instead though

    - - - Updated - - -

    By opposite I mean some alliance completely change their game plan entirely mid way through

  5. #5

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    Very nice analysis CW

  6. #6

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    Would be interesting to see an updated version now DC have pushed their way up the rankings and A&M have disappeared =]

  7. #7
    New Poster PaRaSiTe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Flammabubble View Post
    Would be interesting to see an updated version now DC have pushed their way up the rankings and A&M have disappeared =]
    Yeah, a lot has changed, but that is Travian for you I suppose
    Think outside of the box, create your own path in life. “You laugh at me because I am different; I laugh because you are all the same.”
    ~ Daniel Knode

  8. #8

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    Woooohooo first comment. Good read and layout, hope to see another one later on.

  9. #9

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    Quote Originally Posted by PaRaSiTe View Post
    Yeah, a lot has changed, but that is Travian for you I suppose
    I've seen it done on previous servers where someone does one every couple of months because so much changes, so it would be cool to see it done here =]

    Woooohooo first comment. Good read and layout, hope to see another one later on.
    I think you're a bit late to the party

  10. #10

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    Quote Originally Posted by Flammabubble View Post
    I've seen it done on previous servers where someone does one every couple of months because so much changes, so it would be cool to see it done here =]
    Ok A&M is gone but there has been no fundamental shifts.

    I am planning to do another geographic analysis after the first rush for arties; I expect that to happen in 2-3 weeks from now...

  11. #11

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    Eh, DC have pushed their way up as well, but I'll be waiting to see the one you do in a couple of weeks then

  12. #12

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    Quote Originally Posted by Flammabubble View Post
    Eh, DC have pushed their way up as well, but I'll be waiting to see the one you do in a couple of weeks then
    Well that was not a real surprise though (though some of the SMURFs and A&M who moved over were a bit of a surprise...)

  13. #13

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    No way! I can't believe it!

  14. #14
    New Poster PaRaSiTe's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by proctologist View Post
    No way! I can't believe it!
    Believe what? :/
    Think outside of the box, create your own path in life. “You laugh at me because I am different; I laugh because you are all the same.”
    ~ Daniel Knode

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